Tropical Weather Update (4 PM 8/23/16)

Invest 99L

Invest 99L

Potential Movement of Invest 99L

Potential Movement of Invest 99L

Warm Sea Surface Temperature

Warm Sea Surface Temperature

Model Forecast Tracks of Invest 99L

Model Forecast Tracks of Invest 99L

Tropical Storm Gaston

Tropical Storm Gaston

Several tropical entities exist out in the Atlantic. T.S. Gaston is the strongest right now but it will stay well out to sea and shouldn’t be any concern to the USA. A disturbance named Invest 99L is of more interest because it’s on a path that would eventually take it towards South Florida and perhaps even the Gulf early next week.

 
At this point, Invest 99L is poorly organized. That could change by the weekend as it moves into more favorable territory and over even warmer water near the Bahamas. Two different weather models, the GFS and the ECMWF, are like night and day when it comes to what may happen by the weekend. The ECMWF blows up a hurricane and moves it into the northern Gulf early next week while the GFS keeps it unorganized. Both models do show a building high pressure ridge along the East Coast that would take whatever develops back to the west and northwest.
 
Right now there is no immediate concern for us here in the northern Gulf Coast. These weather models tend to flip and flop after each model run. It is something to at least be aware of as we approach the weekend. New data + additional time = a better forecast during the coming days. Stay tuned.
Categories: Local News

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