June’s inflation data showed a big drop. How will that impact the 2027 Social Security COLA?
(CBS NEWS) – Sources from CBS News say that Social Security recipients are still on track for one of the biggest cost-of-living increases in recent years, with new estimates pointing to a 3.6% to 3.8% benefit boost in 2027 after June’s cooler-than-expected inflation report.
The 2027 COLA could rise by 3.6%, according to the AARP, while the Senior Citizens League is forecasting a 3.8% increase, unchanged from its prior month’s forecast but down from its May estimate for a 3.9% boost.
As of January, the average retired worker received $2,071 a month in Social Security benefits, according to the Social Security Administration. A 3.6% to 3.8% COLA would increase the average monthly benefit by about $75 to $79, raising it to roughly $2,149 at the upper end of the range.
The COLA is intended to help benefits keep pace with inflation, but it is based on past price increases. The Social Security Administration calculates the adjustment using inflation data from July through September, meaning the final 2027 COLA could differ from current estimates based on recent Consumer Price Index reports.
The Social Security Administration will announce the 2027 COLA on Oct. 14, after the September CPI report is released, according to the AARP. The advocacy group said this is its first COLA projection ahead of the third-quarter inflation reports that will be used to calculate the official adjustment.
“Inflation is pretty unstable right now,” Alex Moore, the statistician for the Senior Citizens League, told CBS News in an email.
June’s inflation data came in much cooler than economists had expected, rising 3.5% on an annual basis, lower than the forecast of 3.9%. The report reflected a sharp cooling from May, when the CPI hit a three-year high of 4.2%.
Despite annual COLA increases, many seniors say they’re falling behind financially. Research from the Senior Citizens League shows Social Security benefits have lost nearly 14% of their buying power over the past decade because the inflation measure used to calculate the COLA doesn’t fully reflect expenses that disproportionately affect older Americans, such as healthcare.
The Social Security Administration relies on a subset of the inflation gauge called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. But advocates for older Americans say the index is based on younger workers’ spending patterns and doesn’t accurately reflect older Americans’ spending.
Most seniors are frustrated with their Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, with 89% saying the 2026 hike of 2.8% was too low, allowing their benefits to fall short of inflation, the Senior Citizens League found in a June survey.
