The role of race and gender in the 2020 presidential race – CBS News poll

In the 14 states holding primaries on Super Tuesday, CBS News’ Battleground Tracker poll finds Joe Biden atop the field. African-Americans make up a larger share of Democratic voters in these states than in Iowa and New Hampshire — the states holding the earliest contests.

Biden continues to lead among black Democrats by an overwhelming margin: 50% pick him as their first choice, far ahead of Bernie Sanders (15%) and Elizabeth Warren (14%). Moreover, black voters who back Biden say their support is strong. Pete Buttigieg continues to struggle with black voters, at just 2% in the Super Tuesday states.

Nine in 10 black Democrats think it’s very important that the Democratic nominee understand blacks’ needs and problems.

Democrats have long prioritized finding a candidate they think can beat President Trump. Of course, that means voters are trying to gauge what other voters might do. Many Democrats say the demographics of the future nominee won’t factor into their vote choice. 

But among those who think it will matter to others, many Democrats think it will be harder to beat Mr. Trump if the nominee is female, gay, or a racial minority.

More than half of Super Tuesday Democrats think it would be easier to win if the nominee happens to be white, while just 3% think that would make beating President Trump harder. Fifty percent feel it would be harder to defeat Donald Trump if their nominee is black, compared to 10% who think it will be easier.

Black Democrats, in particular, feel that nominating a black candidate would make it harder to beat Mr. Trump. Most black Democrats in these states think it would be harder to beat him if the party nominates a black candidate. They are more likely to feel this way (60% of them do) than white Democrats are (46%).

Black Democrats are also generally more confident than white Democrats that their party will ultimately nominate someone who can beat Mr. Trump in 2020.

On the matter of gender, a mere 5% say the Democrats would have a harder time beating Trump if their party’s nominee is a man. Forty-nine percent think it would be harder if the nominee is a woman, while just 14% say it would be easier if Democrats nominate a woman.

Six in 10 black Biden supporters say they strongly back him, compared to 4 in 10 of his white supporters who state that level of support.

The CBS News national survey is conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 4,584 U.S. residents interviewed between December 11-13, 2019. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential vote and registration status. The margin of error is +/- 1.7 points.

This CBS News Battleground Tracker survey of Super Tuesday Democrats was conducted by YouGov between December 3 and 11, 2019. A representative sample of 21,461 registered voters was selected in 14 states expected to hold primaries on Super Tuesday (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota,  North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia). This sample includes 10,379 self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential vote. The margin of error is +/- 1.3 percentage points.

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