Rain Begins Today

TODAY/FRIDAY: Showers begin to move in ahead of an upper level low today, with the best chance of rain coming after 11 AM. An associated surface low will organize to our southwest today as well, and begin to move towards Mississippi. The associated warm sector for the surface low will get cut off from the surface low later today, and the warm sector will stay well south of our area meaning we dodge any severe weather threat. There could be an isolated strong to severe storm along the Gulf coast. A tight pressure gradient with this system will allow for some breezy conditions today and tomorrow. Southeast winds could gust as high as 30 mph today and as high as 20 mph tomorrow. The low stays to our west through Friday afternoon, keeping showers in the forecast through the day Friday. High temperatures today and Friday in the upper 50s and low 60s, with overnight lows tonight in the low 50s and in the mid 40s Friday night.

SATURDAY: The upper level low and associated surface low move northeast across our area Friday night into Saturday morning, and will be into Tennessee by Saturday afternoon. Wraparound moisture behind the low will keep shower chances in the forecast through the day Saturday. Highs in the low 50s, with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s.

SUNDAY: Clouds lingering from the upper low decrease through the day and high pressure begins to build across the region. Highs in the mid to upper 50s, with lows in the mid 30s.

MON/TUE/WED: Forecast confidence is fairly high that high pressure and upper level ridging remains the predominant weather pattern across our area through Tuesday, keeping us dry and mild. We’ll keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s through Tuesday. Model solutions diverge by Wednesday, though, with the GFS showing the ridging and high pressure continuing, while the European shows an upper level disturbance that would trigger some showers. I’ve added a low rain chance to Wednesday to account for this, but that rain chance could be increased or dropped off the forecast as forecast confidence increases.