Wintry Weather Possible Friday

TODAY: Overcast skies again. Patchy fog is likely all morning, finally clearing out around 11 AM. A few areas of mist or drizzle will be possible today, as well as a stray shower. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Overnight, we remain overcast. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain around 10%.

THURSDAY: A cold front approaches bringing scattered showers. Warm, with highs in the upper 60s. Overnight, showers continue with a low of 45. Chance of rain 40%.

FRIDAY: Friday’s forecast remains incredibly complex. As a surface low develops over the area and pushes out, cold air moves in with the back edge of the precip. Models continue to indicate there could be some changeover from rain to wintry mix and perhaps snow. This is a tricky forecast because the models haven’t handled this system well so far, and depending on the track of the surface low, how quickly it strengthens, and how much moisture is available once the atmosphere cools to a point at which snow occurs are all going to be crucial, and quite frankly, I’m not particularly confident in this forecast. Compounding this will be the very warm and wet ground any wintry precip would be falling on, which means there would be a lot of melt, and any meaningful snow/wintry precip accumulations would probably require higher precip rates. At this point, pretty much everything is still on the table as far as types of precip and accumulations. My best forecast is as temps drop through the day, rain in the morning will transition to wintry mix in the late morning and early afternoon and then perhaps briefly all snow late in the afternoon and overnight. This is a forecast to watch closely, but it’s also one that will be difficult to get right all the way to the end. Highs in the morning in the low 40s, with overnight lows dropping into the 20s.

SAT-TUE: Much calmer weather this weekend and next week. Temperatures remain well below average, and we should stay dry through Monday, with a low end rain chance Tuesday.