More Heat with a Few Isolated Showers: Watching the Tropics

The heat wave continues with temperatures into the 90s out there, with heat index values likely in the triple digits.  Look for some isolated showers and storms today possible areawide.

TODAY: A few isolated showers are expected as temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s.  Look for a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky with southeast winds 2-6 mph.  Most will stay dry as heat index values climb closer to 100 by the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Lows fall into the low 70s and perhaps upper 60s in a few places under a mostly clear sky.  Winds remain light from the east at 0-4 mph.

THURSDAY – FRIDAY: Temperatures stay toasty in the 90s, with the heat index values likely above 100 each day in most places.  We’ll keep our eyes open for an isolated shower each day, but no widespread beneficial rain is expected into the weekend.  Look for lots of sunshine with a few clouds each day.

SATURDAY: We’re expecting a few isolated to scattered showers and storms as a boundary stalls out.  It doesn’t seem to bring a whole lot of activity as of now, but that could change.  We’re still thinking football games will overall be okay as temperatures climb into the low 90s again.  Heat index values likely still look to push into the triple digits, but if clouds increase and more showers form, that will help keep things a touch cooler.

LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK: There’s a little bit of uncertainty on whether or not an upper level low pressure can form in the Gulf of Mexico and lift northward.  For now, we’ll hold our breath it and keep temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.  Data suggests the low will move into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days with a 50% chance of formation into a tropical cyclone.  Until that happens, higher uncertainty will exist on how it would push inland.  Pending the track of the low, conditions could vary between hot and sunny on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday with isolated pop-up summer storms, to perhaps numerous showers and storms with much cooler temperatures.  The track of the low will continue to be monitored and the forecast will be fine-tuned in the coming days.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK – NEXT WEEK: The latest trends suggest the heat won’t go far.  Odds remain in our favor to continue having above normal temperatures, but we may end up bringing scattered showers and storms each day into the forecast as trends suggest above normal rainfall in the region.  We’ll monitor.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Gabrielle has weakened as its remnants push north and east.  Two waves in the open Atlantic still have 20% odds for formation over the next 5 days.  A third tropical wave pushing into the bahamas now has a 50% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone as it moves northwestward towards Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.  This low will have to be monitored closely and may very well become Tropical Storm Humberto before all is said and done.  We’ll monitor.

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