Nice Today; Rainy, Breezy Saturday.

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TODAY: Nice and unseasonably warm weather on tap. Highs around 70° under partly cloudy skies. Overnight, increasing clouds with lows in the upper 50s.

SATURDAY: A cold front approaches from the west bringing scattered to numerous showers and storms. The pre-storm environment is not particularly supportive of severe weather, but with gusty winds throughout the day and strong winds aloft, it is not our of the realm of possibility we see one or two isolated pockets of wind damage along the main line of showers and storms in the afternoon. This is an incredibly low-end threat. It does appear we will get into the low 70s before the main band of rain and associated cold front push through. Overnight, we clear rather quickly, and lows drop to the upper 30s.

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SUNDAY: Much cooler air moves in behind the cold front. Highs will remain in the 50s Sunday under sunny skies, and lows will drop below freezing Sunday night into Monday morning.

NEXT WEEK: Models have struggled significantly in the day 5-7 range, and thus forecast confidence beyond Monday is pretty low. Monday will be nice, sunny, and cool, with highs in the upper 50s and lows Monday night around freezing. Last night’s European model indicates a small rain chance Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and seasonable weather as we head into Thanksgiving. That’s in stark contrast to yesterday’s run that indicated a low end rain chance Wednesday and Thanksgiving. The GFS (American) model has been more consistent with a dry pattern, and thus I am leaning with it a tad more than usual. However, I am adding a 10% chance of rain on Tuesday to account for the rain chance from the Euro. With forecast confidence lower, I’d check back on the forecast for next week Sunday or Monday, when we should have a better idea of the setup going into the week. High temps will climb into the low 60s Tuesday and Wednesday, and upper 50s and lower 60s for Thanksgiving. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday night stay in the mid to upper 30s.