Topical Update: 3 PM August 24th

Invest 99L’s Potential Path

Model Forecast Tracks

Invest 99L

All eyes are on Invest 99L at this time. The disturbance remains somewhat disorganized with no centralized low-level circulation; however, it could become a tropical depression at any point in the next day or two.   Tropical storm force squalls have been observed in the northeastern Leeward Islands Wednesday afternoon.

There is some model consensus that this disturbance (named or not) will be in the Bahamas on Saturday and perhaps somewhere in South Florida on Sunday.  After that all bets are off as far as where it may end up or how strong or weak it may become.  High pressure is going to build along the Eastern Seaboard during the coming days and it should keep the feature moving WNW in the near term.  By early next week a weakness along the western side of this ridge of high pressure may allow the disturbance to turn north.  When and where that occurs is still up in the air.  Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should continue to watch the evolution of this feature during the next few days.